Hunter Baker, a Democrat, has taken the lead in the Harford County Council District E race after mail-in ballots were counted — erasing what had been a 352-vote Republican advantage on election night.
What’s happening: As of 11:26 p.m. Friday, Baker leads 8,538 to 8,231 over Republican Douglas Phillips, a margin of 307 votes. The results are unofficial. Additional mail-in and provisional ballots remain to be counted.
How the lead changed: All 11 Election Day polling places reported their results on election night, November 3. At that point, Phillips led by 352 votes. Since then, 1,565 additional votes have been added to the two candidates’ combined totals as mail-in ballots were counted. Baker received about 1,112 of those votes — roughly 71% — while Phillips received 453, or about 29%. That split produced a net swing of 659 votes toward Baker.
Nothing happened to Phillips’ existing votes. His total went up. Baker simply received more of the newly counted ballots.
Why this happened: Voters who cast ballots by different methods broke sharply for different candidates. On Election Day, Phillips led Baker 5,298 to 4,204 — about 56% of the two-candidate vote. Among early in-person voters, Baker led 2,685 to 2,264, or about 54%. Among mail-in ballots counted through Friday, Baker led 1,649 to 669 — about 71% of the two-candidate mail vote.
When election night results showed “100% of precincts reporting,” that meant every Election Day polling place had submitted its count. It did not mean every ballot had been counted. Mail-in and provisional ballots are counted separately, under a process called canvassing.
What’s still being counted: The state reported 481 received mail-in ballots in District E still awaiting counting as of Friday. That includes 465 domestic civilian ballots, 8 from overseas civilians, 5 from domestic military voters, and 3 from military overseas. That figure does not capture every possible remaining ballot — Maryland law allows ballots mailed by Election Day to be counted if they arrive by November 13, and provisional ballots are handled separately. Some ballots may ultimately be rejected, and some voters may have skipped this race.
What the math shows: For Phillips to retake the lead from the 481 outstanding ballots alone, he would need about 395 of them — roughly 82% of the remaining two-candidate vote. Baker has received about 71% of mail-in votes counted so far. An 82% Phillips share would be a sharp reversal of the pattern established across thousands of ballots already counted.
These illustrative projections show what Baker’s lead would look like depending on how the remaining ballots split, assuming all 481 produce a vote for one of the two candidates and no additional ballots arrive before the deadline:
- Baker 70%, Phillips 30%: Baker leads by 499.
- Baker 60%, Phillips 40%: Baker leads by 403.
- Baker 50%, Phillips 50%: Baker leads by about 307.
- Baker 30%, Phillips 70%: Baker leads by 115.
- Baker 20%, Phillips 80%: Baker leads by about 18.
These are not forecasts. They are illustrations of how the math works when counting the remaining ballots.
This has happened before: In the 2022 Republican primary for County Council District D, John Carl Jr. led by 242 votes on election night. After additional ballots were counted, James Reilly moved ahead and won by 11 votes — 2,862 to 2,851. A recount did not change the result.
The same broad mail-in pattern appeared in District E four years ago. In 2022, Democrat Rachel Gauthier received about 65% of the two-candidate mail-in vote in District E. She lost the overall race to Republican Jessica Boyle-Tsottles. Baker’s 71% mail-in share is higher than Gauthier’s, and the overall race is closer.
What a Baker win would mean: District E has elected Republicans to the County Council in every race since at least 2010. A Baker victory would end that streak. It would also split the council’s six district seats evenly, three Democrats and three Republicans. Republicans would still hold four of the council’s seven seats overall, including the separately elected council presidency, which Republican Billy Boniface won.
The process: Maryland law requires that canvassing — the formal review and counting of mail-in and provisional ballots — include members of both major parties. The public may observe canvassing sessions. The process includes checking voter eligibility, verifying required voter oaths, reviewing ballots for scanner readability and voter intent, and preventing duplicate votes. Canvassing sessions are scheduled for November 12 and 13. The deadline for mail-in ballots to be received and counted is November 13.
A lead change as mail-in ballots are counted does not by itself indicate fraud or irregularities. The shift in this race is consistent with the documented difference in how Election Day voters and mail-in voters split their votes.